Since the deal with the Americans collapsed there has been a
lot of conjecture as to how Fawaz will fund the club through to the end of the
season or at least prior to any further takeovers.
The weekend has seen a lot of off the pitch intrigue aside
from the win at Forest. Fawaz perhaps somewhat emboldened by the past week or
so has released a couple of statements and has even employed a new Chief
Financial Officer.
The overall question will be though how will fund a club he
clearly has so desperately tried avoided paying for. With both failed takeovers
having had a period of time paying the wages, and even a debate with Marinakis
around 2% of the deal down to the July Payment run (Fawaz didn’t want to pay)
now Fawaz has to fund the club till you’d think June at the earliest, as no one
is going to want to assume control of Forest until their future next season is
assured.
That based on the SwissRamble piece and his proposed yearlong
losses for 2015-16 being in the region of £21.5 million, I will therefore
putting the running costs for the end of the season at £7mill. These are rough
round up figures. We have now since this was calculated sold Lansbury and had
a Bamford windfall which now comes in at around £4-4.5 million. There’s still a
hefty short fall there and unless Fawaz has somehow secured backing then it
might be a struggle.
The Burke money might have a little left over to fill the
gap, but I figure that’d also go towards paying off Montanier. Not a penny of
that has been spent up till yet. On any players, aside from the few hundred thousand
on Portuguese flop Lica.
The following table shows the players linked with January with
quoted figures in the press, with their rumoured wages.
|
Value of players
for sale
|
wages saved (Est)
|
|
|
Lansbury
|
3500000
|
25000
|
|
Osborn
|
4000000
|
8000
|
|
Brereton
|
3000000
|
0
|
|
Mancienne
|
750000
|
25000
|
|
Assombalonga
|
7000000
|
30000
|
|
Cash
|
6000000
|
2000
|
|
Value of Potential Transfer fees
|
24250000
|
90000
|
That amounts to £24.2 mill. Obviously these figures could
change or be wrong, if that be wages or the final fee. A total saving of around
£90k per week on wages might also appeal to Fawaz. That figure also closely
resembles the annual losses. But forgets the Burke, de Vries and Paterson fees.
Now obviously Lansbury has gone. That’s supposedly another
£25k p/w saved on wages too, which equates to half a million quid there or there
abouts. Now when players leave they often have loyalty bonuses built in, this
may or may not be the case and we don’t know what fees might be payable there.
So taking the figures we are losing a year. That’s 400k per
week rounded. That’d need £9mill to fund us to till June. This was all
calculated at 22 weeks to start of June.
That’s right now looking at needing £8.5 mill to fund us with no further
sales. Will Fawaz make up that gap? Maybe.
But that excludes what I said above about Burke and Co. So
if we consider that equated to £13.5 mill, plus the Lansbury and Bamford fees,
that’d be £17.5mill. So there’s still £4million to offset in the wider picture
of yearly losses. Around the figure Osborn has been quoted as having been bid
for.
Again, this basing figures on previous published figures.
Things might be better/worse in this picture than what we are quoting. And if we
sold Mancienne for instance, that’d be £550k we have saved wages wise, plus any fee bought
in.
All in all it looks likely that if things are too believed,
further player sales will be needed.
Put that against what one person told me that Fawaz current
UK Bank balance is about £150k (how they know this I don’t knowso probabaly bollocks) and
that he has been selling cars it would certainly look like he won’t be funding
us, unless the family have given him funds to fund us till we get a new buyer
and offset that loss. It’d also explain why he is holding out for bigger fees.
Emad likes to peddle this is Fawaz life savings line. It’s not, its money lent to
him by his family. Which he in turn loaned Forest. The debts are loans
essentially to the al-Hasawi family.
I calculated this to see how many players he could sell to
recoup losses before selling to Moores later or to any other buyer. If he held
out to June and sold off assets to sell, what would he sell and then need to
get back to his £50mill, but it’s become more about what he needs to run us.
I predict further sales. I hope I am wrong and that Fawaz has
secured funds from elsewhere.
Otherwise it might get even rockier.
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